The Big Lag: U.S. Industrial production - FINANCIAL-24

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The Big Lag: U.S. Industrial production - FINANCIAL-24

U.S. industrial production was flat in May, worse than the expectation of a 0.1 percent advance. Relative to the previous year, industrial production grew 2.2 percent. The report also indicated that the sector continues to exhibit significant excess capacity. Moreover, as the WTI price of oil has reverted to below $45 per barrel, the sector is exposed to a major headwind if it breaks down below $43 per barrel.

Despite the noted expansion in industrial production, the theme of market overvaluation remains the same:   Relative to historic data the S&P 500 valuation would tend to be matched by a higher level of industrial production, much higher: 25 to 35 percent higher than the current levels.  

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