What is the Trend on the Dollar? - FINANCIAL-24

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What is the Trend on the Dollar? - FINANCIAL-24

The U.S dollar index (DXY) traded in the range of 80 to 85 from January 2012 to September 2014. By 2015, however, the DXY index had jumped 20 percent and then settled in a trading range of 95 to 100.  This dollar strength correlated with lower manufacturing activity and most recent data indicates that US industrial production dropped 0.9 percent in October relative to the previous year. 

Now, as the DXY index breached above 100 following the election results, the prospect of a new Trump regime (with DXY>100) is certainty possible.  Yet our view is that as neither the US nor the global economy are sufficiently resilient to handle the DXY above 105. 

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